JP Morgan is expecting Scotland to leave the United Kingdom and introduce a currency of its own within three years.

Malcolm Barr, an economist with the banking giant, said there would be pressure to hold a new referendum on Scottish independence as Britain negotiated its exit from the European Union.

In a note to clients, he said: “Our base case is that Scotland will vote for independence and institute a new currency at that point (2019).”

Sixty-two per cent of Scots voters backed the ‘remain’ side in last week’s referendum.

JP Morgan, which employs 4,000 people in Bournemouth, believes the next prime minister will activate Article 50 this year, triggering negotiations on Britain’s departure from the EU which are expected to last for two years.

Mr Barr said the UK would have to decide whether it wanted to keep access to the single European market, which would mean accepting free movement of people and budget contributions to the EU. The alternative was much less access to European markets – and he said this arrangement was more likely.

He added: “We expect there to be clear evidence of multinational operations shifting the location of their activity out of the UK given the regulatory uncertainties.

“Even if the UK begins to signal that it will compromise on other priorities in order to secure full access to the single market in financial services, there is a clear risk that euro-denominated activities relocate to within the EU simply to ensure continuity of relationships.”

During the referendum campaign, JP Morgan chairman Jamie Dimon warned 4,000 of the bank’s UK jobs could move abroad if Britain voted for Brexit.

After the result, he reiterated that there may be changes to “the location of some roles” but said the bank would “maintain a large presence in London, Bournemouth and Scotland”.

Scottish first minister NicJPmorgan ola Sturgeon is due to meet European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker on Wednesday as she seeks a way for Scotland to remain in the EU after Britain’s 52-48 ‘leave’ vote.